Without Provenance
Probability becomes opaque — scores exist but cannot be decomposed. Threshold drift goes unnoticed — gates shift without record. Vendor logic contaminates judgment — external weights bleed into internal decisions. Forecasting becomes narrative — no traceable path from prediction to outcome.
With Provenance
Every probability score can be decomposed into contributing signals and weights. Every routing decision can be reconstructed from threshold to execution. Every correction event can be explained with cohort, error, and delta. Every capital reallocation has traceable logic from SPI shift to budget movement.
1
Signal Provenance
Layer 04 — Signal Interpretation
Every APS must carry metadata. No composite probability exists without ancestry. If a probability score cannot be reverse-engineered, it is disallowed.
sources[]Structural + behavioral
weights{}Coefficients at score time
decay_constantsλ values per signal
icp_modifiersCluster-level adjustments
model_versionLogic version ID
timestampScore calculation time
2
Model Provenance
Layer 01 — Revenue Feedback
When correction triggers, record the full context. Adaptive calibration is bounded — provenance records the bounds.
cohort_window90-day rolling scope
cluster_idWhich segment triggered
error_thresholdWhat limit was breached
weight_deltaExact adjustment made
version_changeOld → new model version
approvernull if autonomous, ID if gated
3
Routing Provenance
Layer 02 — Orchestration
When an account escalates, the decision chain must be reconstructable. Every routing action traceable from signal through gate to pod assignment.
threshold_activeGate criteria at decision time
capacity_statePod/territory load
agent_firedWhich agent triggered action
account_stateLifecycle at decision time
territory_assignedPod + rep mapping
motion_trackWhich lane + channel
4
Economic Provenance
Layer 06 — P&L Gravity
When capital reallocates, trace the economic logic. Economic gravity cannot drift silently.
spi_deltaWhich segment SPI shifted
cac_assumptionWhat CAC threshold applied
coverage_multiplePipeline coverage at decision
margin_constraintWhich floor triggered
5
Vendor Provenance Boundary
Sovereignty Map Alignment
Vendor telemetry is allowed. Vendor logic is not. Every vendor-fed signal must be labeled, normalized, internally weighted, and separated from decision authority.
vendor_idSource system identifier
signal_typeWhat category of data
raw_valueUnmodified vendor output
normalizationInternal transform applied
internal_weightWeight assigned by Signal Agent
Architectural Rule — Non-Negotiable
No autonomous action without provenance logging. Agents may optimize. Agents may not obscure. Every threshold adjustment, budget shift, segment reclassification, and probability recalibration must produce an immutable log entry. Provenance is non-optional.
Your architecture already demotes attribution. Provenance formalizes the replacement.
Attribution (Demoted)
"What touched the deal?"
Descriptive. Historical credit allocation. Backward-looking. Feeds calibration only — does not govern budget or execution decisions.
Provenance (Structural)
"What changed the probability, and why?"
Structural. Forward-looking causality chain. Traceable from signal origin through weight application to decision output. Governs trust in the system.
1
Score Decomposition
Any APS explainable to contributing signals + weights
2
Decision Chain
Every routing action traceable from signal → gate → pod
3
Version Registry
Model versions tracked. Weight changes logged with before/after
4
Vendor Labeling
Every external signal tagged with source and normalization
5
Immutable Store
Audit records append-only. No retroactive modification
Why This Matters Strategically
You are arguing for paradigm replacement. Paradigm replacement only succeeds if the new system is more transparent than the old one. Provenance is what prevents your architecture from becoming another black box. It makes dissent defensible. Once you formalize provenance, agent deployment becomes a compliance decision, not a creative one.